The massive investment in battery and electric-motor technology being pursued by virtually every car maker may not result in millions of electric cars on the roads, but it won't be a wasted effort.
Instead, these better batteries and motors are likely to end up in hybrid cars, which combine a gasoline-electric with an electric motor, producing hybrids that are less expensive and more fuel-sipping than today's versions, say car executives and other industry officials.
The work on pure electric vehicles, which some say could sell poorly, "is not for naught," said Bill Reinert, Toyota Motor Corp.'s manager of advanced technology in North America. "Ultimately, hybrids could be the winners."
Hybrid-electric cars such as the Toyota Prius account for only 2.4% of U.S. vehicle sales today. But they are poised to proliferate. A third of the 100 or so vehicles shown at the Paris Motor Show last month—a peek into the near future—were hybrids or electric vehicles.
Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., Toyota and Honda Motor Co. all have placed bets that hybrids will spread as the companies need to meet increasingly stringent government fuel-economy targets in both the U.S. and Europe.
Higher U.S. targets for fuel economy begin in 2012 and get progressively tougher through 2020. Work going on for electric cars—reducing battery costs, boosting energy density of the batteries, shortening recharging times and improving electric motors—all will benefit hybrids.
And hybrids aren't shackled to an outlet or limited by driving range.
Ford estimates that 10% to 25% of its global fleet will be "electrified" by 2020, and the bulk of that will be hybrids. Toyota hasn't given an exact percentage, but the Japanese auto maker plans to offer a hybrid version of every vehicle it sells by about 2020.
Ford recently announced that its new Lincoln MKZ hybrid sedan would be sold at the same starting price as the gasoline version, making it the first car maker to not charge a premium for the technology.
GM soon will launch the Chevrolet Volt, which is an electric car with a gasoline-engine range extender. It's a variation of a hybrid that was developed because the company doubted the market potential of a pure electric after its disappointing experience selling the EV1 in California in the 1990s.
GM also plans to make a plug-in hybrid—a hybrid that can run for some miles on pure battery power before its gasoline engine kicks in—as well as to extend its use of "micro hybrids," whose engine shuts off at stop lights to conserve gas, while a battery keeps the lights and climate control running.
These "start-stop" systems are already becoming common in Europe. One roadblock to greater use in the U.S. is the government's fuel economy testing procedure doesn't do a good job of showing the benefits of the system, which can improve gasoline efficiency by as much as 8%.
Micky Bly, executive director of GM's electrical systems, hybrids, electric vehicles and batteries, said the battery and electronic-control technology in the Volt will spread across its lineup. By 2015, about 10% of GM's U.S. fleet will be some form of hybrid or plug-in hybrid.
Honda is starting to incorporate hybrids into mainstream cars like the CR-Z, a sports car that just happens to be a hybrid. The auto maker also announced that in its home market of Japan, the Civic would be offered only as a hybrid model going forward.
Boston Consulting Group estimates that 26% of light vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2020 will be hybrids, while about 5% will be all-electric.
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